Zilkens' News Blog

Zilkens' News Blog 39 2025

Morgen & Stern GmbH in Berlin has published the Global Blue-Chip Art Market Report 2025, which is based on a variety of publicly available sources and individual experiences. The company has a constant portfolio of exciting artworks in stock, ranging in value from USD 500 million to USD 1 billion. The six summarised findings on the blue-chip market in the art sector are certainly interesting:

1. The strongest buyer's market in more than a decade. Current conditions offer collectors exceptional advantages, especially in private sales, with discounts and flexible structures.

2. The price difference remains. Sellers are guided by the peak valuations of 2021–22, while buyers use the benchmarks of 2024–25. The negotiation margin for blue-chip works is between 10 and 25 per cent, rising to 50 per cent for distress sales.

3. Private sales gain dominance. Auction sales over $10 million fell by 45% in 2024, while private sales at Sotheby's rose by 17% and at Christie's by 41%. The private sector now often sets the tone.

4. Polarisation across all segments. Megastars (Warhol, Monet, Picasso) remain stable; speculative ultra-contemporary art has collapsed. Old masters show selective resilience, with outstanding artists such as Artemisia Gentileschi.

5. Collectors have become more cautious. 74% of collectors conduct extensive research before purchasing. Buyers demand fair value and impeccable provenance and focus on blue-chip icons.

6. Macroeconomic influences: Inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are weighing on sentiment, but 88% of wealthy collectors remain positive and view art as a safe haven (85% see it as a better diversification than stocks).

In the context of the envious debate about wealth tax, art also repeatedly plays a role as a potential asset. However, there is no guarantee that a work of art for which you have paid a fortune will retain its value. This makes it difficult to determine the asset value, which must be clearly distinguished from the insurance value. Even if museums accept loan agreements for individual works with horrendous insurance values when borrowing, this is no proof that this corresponds to a taxable asset. Art should therefore be kept out of the debate. Perhaps living artists who try to make a living from their works should also consider this. The more interesting the work, the greater the factor for the individual artist. The greater the risk of being regarded as a taxable asset and thus leading to a loss of liquidity as dead capital on the wall, the less desire there is to own such assets. Technically, it is now possible to bring any cherished image into your room – it may have less aura, but it is not as vulnerable. And art – well, that's just bad luck then .

The recently published fourth volume of the Munich Commentary on the VVG, co-edited by Theo Langheid, among others, has 2,358 pages. D&O, cyber and many additions to other sectors as well as art insurance, which is thus making its first appearance in a serious legal commentary. Chapter 53, between pages 1525 and 1569, lists the basics of insuring works of art, and Chapter 54, between pages 1571 and 1590, comments on state indemnities. This is hardly surprising with 16 countries – all related but none of them identical twins.

Monte Carlo is a district of Monaco – and, as is well known, it is home to those in Europe who love car racing and semi-autonomous principalities, whose administrations and social spending are not so enormous that they require horrendous tax revenues to supposedly prevent the division of society or to appease the raison d'être of certain parties or journalistic schools of thought. And every year, reinsurers meet there with their clients to discuss the reinsurance programmes for the coming year. It's an expensive and no longer so beautiful place – but you can stay in Nice and travel there in the morning. Some risk classes are set to become cheaper, but only if reinsurers are exempted from frequency losses. However, a new spectre is looming on the horizon in the form of so-called ‘social inflation’, which is threatening balance sheets. In addition to economic inflation, which increases the cost of wages and salaries as well as goods and services, which can be incorporated into premium calculations in the traditional manner, claims are now increasing that are driven by legal, political and judicial developments and no longer have anything to do with the actual amount of damage. Popular in this context are attempts to dry cats in microwaves, the lethal outcome of which inspires lawyers in other legal systems to make absurd but court-approved claims for damages, which are ultimately attributed to poor translation of instruction manuals. The cat owner receives only a fraction – the law firm is happy and the insurance community is surprised by increased prices and reduced coverage. But in a country where the president both constantly harasses his top monetary watchdog and constantly gives the impression that he is above the law, one should not be surprised by this clever development. It is unfortunate that the issue is now finding its way into European legislation in the form of class actions, among other things, and is thus becoming part of further redistribution strategies. Ultimately, it is the consumer, who is supposed to be protected by these measures, who will pay for all this. - No comment

Autumn is slowly approaching – let's look forward to a world with different colours and impressions. Kobel has a long commented press review following.

The team at Zilkens Fine Art Insurance Broker in Cologne and Solothurn wishes you a good week.