Kobel's Art Weekly

Kobel's Art Weekly 3 2026

2026 is shaping up to be no different from the last six years. And Melanie Gerlis in The Art Newspaper is not giving the all-clear for the art market either: "Within the art market, the shift in taste towards lower-priced art (plus a few trophies) seems here to stay as collectors nurse the reality that their “investments” in art have not paid off these past ten years or so. Caution will prevail as the market gradually accepts that demand could be as much of a problem as supply. The figures for 2025 are not yet available, but given the gloomy first half of the year, they are likely to be only slightly above the low point of 2024. I expect more of the same for 2026."

Art is becoming just another luxury asset, believes Ursula Scheer in the FAZ (paywall): "Sotheby's now generates a third of its turnover with this product class; its competitor Christie's around a quarter. Anyone who believed that “quiet luxury” was the future and that participation or experience could become more important than ownership is being proven wrong by the demand for luxury goods, which often combine distinction and material value – and not only in the Gulf. For up-and-coming, wealthy younger collectors, jewellery, villas, classic cars and design are no longer just potential door openers on the path to art, but at least equally important components of identity-building asset shopping in the globalised high-end department store of consumer culture. In this context, artists are brands that achieve synergy effects with other brands – see Louis Vuitton bags decorated by Yayoi Kusama. This has repercussions for the art world. Luxury brands act as patrons, promoting, curating and commissioning art." I came to a similar conclusion a week earlier for Monopol.

Philipp Meier takes an unusually critical view of Art Basel's move to Qatar in the NZZ: "The losses have grown to a cumulative 420 million Swiss francs since 2017. Accordingly, American billionaire James Murdoch is also applying pressure. He is a major shareholder in the MCH Group and is banking on the Art Basel brand as a money-making machine. However, with its involvement in Doha, Art Basel has also attracted criticism that it is allowing itself to be used to boost Qatar's image. On the one hand, the country is trying to get closer to the West through sport and art, while on the other hand it is promoting the spread of the Muslim Brotherhood's ideology worldwide. Qatar finances the terrorist organisation Hamas and supports Islamist groups with its al-Jazeera television station. Furthermore, freedom of expression is restricted in Qatar. This also affects artistic freedom.

In WeLT, Marcus Woeller searches for an explanation for the trend towards the merging of the markets for collectibles and art: "The luxury segment no longer serves merely as a supplement, but as a stabiliser – and possibly as a growth engine. It is more predictable and crisis-proof than the market for classical art, which is suffering from a dwindling supply of the highest quality, while the global economy as a whole is groaning under geopolitical uncertainty. Even ultra-wealthy buyers in the high-price segment are acting more cautiously. However, they share an attitude with younger customers: they are making less and less distinction between E and U, between fine art and luxury objects, and are instead investing in iconic pieces with history. Auction houses are following this logic."

However, the luxury industry is also facing structural change, as the industry magazine Business of Fashion and McKinsey have discovered: "Over the past three years, luxury volume growth has softened, with brands increasingly relying on price increases to maintain top-line performance. Between 2023 and 2025, an estimated 80 per cent of luxury market growth will be attributable to price increases rather than volume gains – a lever that cannot be relied on indefinitely. At the same time, competition for market share has intensified as customers spread their discretionary spending across a wider range of categories, including travel and wellness. Ambitious shoppers – those who spend between €3,000 (approx. £3,494) and €10,000 (approx. £11,647) annually on luxury goods – have cut back on their luxury spending in the face of price increases and a more challenging economic environment. An estimated 35 per cent of ambitious luxury customers have reduced or postponed their luxury spending.”

The change is also affecting the watch market, reports ntv: "According to the analysis, one of the decisive factors is that Generation Z is changing the luxury watch market. “For decades, sporty steel watches have dominated among younger buyers, but now there is a clear trend towards dress watches – smaller, simpler and more elegant models.” According to the analysis, Cartier is particularly popular with Gen Z. [...] Industry observer [Michael] Müller also points to the general uncertainty surrounding global politics: “People are holding on to their money.” However, this is particularly noticeable in the price range between £1,000 and £5,000. “Above £10,000, people don't think about it so much.”"

Comics, on the other hand, are catching up, as ntv also reports: "A Superman comic book from 1938, which cost 10 cents at the time, has set a million-dollar record. The comic was purchased for 15 million dollars (just under 13 million euros) by a collector who wished to remain anonymous, according to the New York-based company Metropolis Collectibles/ComicConnect. This far exceeded the previous record price for a comic book, it added. Last November, a 1939 issue of the Superman series was auctioned in New York for $9.1 million."

Business is not going so well at Bonham's, however, reports Josh Spero in the Financial Times (paywall): "Bonhams' pre-tax loss jumped almost 90 per cent to £213 million in 2024 as the auction house struggled amid an ongoing art market slump. The majority of the loss was attributable to impairment charges of £153 million caused by lower cash flow forecasts. The UK-based company's revenue fell 9 per cent to £176 million. Bonhams was sold in October to one of its lenders, Pemberton Asset Management, to which it owed £193 million according to its latest accounts filed with the UK Companies House."

Marcus Woeller takes stock of the photography market for WeLT: "The ranking reveals two things: First, two hundred years after its invention, photography is almost as diverse as the visual arts as a whole. Second, it still does not command the astronomical market prices that buyers pay for paintings by Gustav Klimt or Pablo Picasso, for example. Photography is still considered a niche market where discoveries can be made – but one that is also good for surprises. For example, Diandra Donecker, head of the photography department and now co-managing director of the Grisebach auction house in Berlin, acquired a photogram by László Moholy-Nagy, which was auctioned in 2017 for almost half a million euros – a record for a photograph in Germany."

Elisa Carrollo discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the dominance of art fairs in the Observer: "As the industry exits a game-changing 2025 and enters 2026 with open questions, a broad consensus has emerged that the current fair system is no longer sustainable. But paradoxically, despite weakening market conditions that make it difficult for many galleries – especially emerging and mid-sized galleries with razor-thin margins – to afford to participate, they cannot afford to opt out either. Participation in fairs has become a necessity for branding, with the list of fairs a gallery attends now serving as a status symbol and defining its perceived level, much like FIFA tournaments do for national football teams. [...] At the same time, fairs undeniably pose a financial risk for galleries. Rising costs of participation, transport and travel can easily spell doom for smaller galleries. But fairs can also, and not infrequently, reverse a gallery's fortunes by offering a real chance for international exposure, institutional recognition and – occasionally – sales large enough to sustain it throughout the year."

Silvia Anna Barrilà experienced a biennial as an anchor and driving force for the art market in India for WeLT: "The biennial also serves as a kick-off for events in the Indian art trade: Mumbai Gallery Weekend will take place from 8 to 11 January 2026, and the India Art Fair will run from 5 to 8 February 2026 in New Delhi. “The Kochi Biennale is a source of inspiration for us,” explained Jaya Asokan, director of the art fair, “especially the associated Students” Biennale, where we discover artists with great potential and sometimes invite them to participate in side projects at the fair.' Now in its 17th edition, the fair no longer sees itself as merely a commercial event, but rather attempts to promote contemporary art throughout the year. The Biennale also has a permanent place at the fair; many works by Biennale artists are offered for sale there by their galleries. Buoyed by India's economic performance, the art market is also growing steadily.

The art lending sector, which has grown rapidly in recent years, is experiencing a setback, explains Josh Spero in the Financial Times (paywall): "Half of non-bank companies that lend against artworks experienced loan defaults in 2024, up from just 17 per cent two years earlier, a new study shows. [...] Harry Smith, CEO of art appraiser Gurr Johns, said: ‘The traditional markets are divided between the best and the rest. Loans for the best are fine – loans for the rest are absolutely not fine.’ Gurr Johns, which annually values $4-5 billion worth of artworks used as collateral, is abandoning its small lending business."

In the Tagesspiegel (paywall), Wolfgang Ullrich argues for an expansion of the term ‘red chip art’ introduced at the beginning of last year by former Artnet (possibly paywall) columnist Annie Armstrong: "Red chip art is by no means just art for the rich. Rather, it is the first type of visual art that follows pop culture logic completely. Instead of becoming known through museums or biennials, curators, galleries or other gatekeepers, red chip artists owe their fame and fortune solely to followers and fans who love what they do – who can identify with it, who derive comfort, entertainment or inspiration from it. However, most of these fans do not have enough money or space to buy expensive unique pieces. Because there are so many fans, large sums of money can still be made with editions and limited-edition objects, prints and figurines. Works of red-chip art are therefore often available in different sizes, materials and forms of limited availability, so that there is something for everyone. Stickers, buttons or small prints often cost only double-digit amounts. However, those who wish to do so can also pay five, six or even seven figures for individual works.

In the copyright dispute over the Kippenberger paintings in Berlin's Paris Bar, Monopol reports a legally binding judgement: ‘The Munich Higher Regional Court has ruled that Berlin poster painter Götz Valien is to be recognised as co-author of two paintings by Martin Kippenberger.’

Bernhard Schulz reviews the life of gallery owner Franz Dahlem in Monopol: "In a further interview with “Kunstforum”, he was asked whether he thought about his death. “Every day,” was his answer. 'I doubt whether it even exists, although I recently bought a grave. I like going to churches and cemeteries.' As his long-time friend and publisher of his autobiography, Lothar Schirmer, has now announced, Franz Dahlem died at the end of December near Munich at the age of 87.‘ Curator Klaus Honnef recalls on Facebook: ’He was one of those who acted like yeast in the tough German art world. Like many, he is forgotten today, unlike the artists who owe more to his tireless efforts than they realise. Without Dahlem and others, the German art world would unfortunately have always looked the way it does today. And there would have been no exuberant 1970s and 1980s, when German artists conquered the art world. There is no one like him anymore."

Matt Phillips reports on the death of gallery owner Robert Mnuchin in the New York Times: "Robert E. Mnuchin, a partner at Goldman Sachs who, with his flair for stock trading, his connections to Wall Street and his deep love of art, built a second career as one of New York's leading gallery owners and art dealers, died on Friday at his home in Bridgewater, Connecticut. He was 92 years old."