Kobel's Art Weekly

Kobel's Art Weekly 35 2025

The auction year was ill-fated from the outset, and things only improved slightly, as the third and final part of our season review shows.

Due to the weakening art business, auctioneers are looking for alternatives, as Scott Reyburn observes for the New York Times: ‘Josh Pullan, Sotheby's global head of luxury, said sales of such goods draw in wealthy clients who may, in time, start to buy high-end art. “Luxury categories are for us a vital gateway for new, often younger, collectors,” he added. Last year, luxury generated about 33 per cent of sales at Sotheby's, compared with 16 per cent at Christie's, according to the companies' communications teams. But the category attracted more buyers than art did. [...] Christie's is owned by luxury goods billionaire François-Henri Pinault, whose Kering conglomerate has also been hit by flagging sales. After introducing handbag auctions back in 2014, Christie's is now having to catch up with Sotheby's offering of luxury items and trophy collectibles, like dinosaur skeletons.’

Meanwhile, Sotheby's is trying to get the genie of its new pricing model back into the bottle. Stephanie Dieckvoss explains the climb-down for the Handelsblatt: ‘In a radical about-turn, Sotheby's is raising the reduced commissions for consignors and buyers at auctions again. They “listened to the market”, according to a customer announcement from the company. From February, customised fees will be offered for consignors that will not be published. After the desired transparency, it is now going in the opposite direction, namely total freedom of negotiation for the house. However, this will certainly take a lot of time.’

Sotheby's is offering jewels, handbags, art and used sports equipment at its first auction in Saudi Arabia. Elisa Carollo presents the wild mix in the Observer.

‘First!’ is how Ursula Scheer titled her commentary for the FAZ in early February on the somewhat sobering annual figures of the major auction houses, with a view to Sotheby's: ’ is the amount that the auction house owned by the Israeli-French telecom entrepreneur Patrick Drahi will achieve in sales revenue in 2024. Christie's, the company in the Artémis universe of the French businessman François Pinault, reported that it had achieved 5.7 billion. Accordingly, Charles Stewart, CEO of Sotheby's, has plenty to report in the annual financial statement. He talks about a solid result in uncertain times, which positions the company at the top of the market, about investments in the future with glamorous new branches on three continents, a sales rate of 85 per cent at auctions and many new customers. But the bare figures also reveal that the business is not a sure-fire success. Sotheby's auction revenues are down 28 per cent from 2023. Christie's revenue decline was 22 per cent in the first half of 2024 and is expected to shrink to six per cent by year end.’

The Old Masters auctions did not go particularly well, notes Judd Tully in The Art Newspaper: ‘While this winter's premier auctions for Old Master works at Christie's and Sotheby's in New York yielded better results year-over-year, overall sales totals failed to live up to the pre-sale estimates set by the auction houses. Christie's New York staged a bumpy and uneven Old Master sale on Wednesday (6 January), making $19.5m ($24.4m with fees), just shy of its revised pre-sale estimate of $22.2m to 33.2m after four withdrawals. Still, the sale far exceeded last January's anemic result of $10.9m ($13.7m with fees).’

Christie's first auction dedicated exclusively to AI art is reported by Min Chen at Artnet.

Luxury goods may not be as safe a bet as the major auction houses had hoped for as a new business area, fears Mealnie Gerlis in The Art Newspaper: ‘While auction sales were down across the board last year, at Christie's the biggest drop came in luxury goods, which plunged 31% to $678m in 2024. By comparison, 20th/21st-century art sales fell by 15%, and the beleaguered Old Masters sector by 29%.’

Mixed signals were sent by the contemporary art mid-season sales at Sotheby's and Christie's, according to Karen K. Ho from Artnews: ‘[Art consultant Dane] Jensen said the results of mid-season sales can be rocky, especially in a fragmented, “spotty” art market that currently privileges Abstract Expressionism and figurative painting. ‘People will show up for the really great stuff, and then anything less, it makes it a tough, tough sale,’ he said.’

The mid-season sales in London were more successful than those in New York the week before. In the Handelsblatt, Stephanie Dieckvoss summarises: ‘Sotheby's Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction, with only 38 lots, brought in £62.5 million. The overall sell-through rate was a high 90 per cent. Christie's also had a strong result: the main sale of 48 lots raised £82.2 million, with a sell-through rate of 94 per cent. Added to this were the excellent results of the subsequent Surrealism auction. Here, only one of the 25 lots remained unsold. The auction raised just over £48 million.’

Abu Dhabi's stake in Sotheby's is likely to be higher than previously thought, reports Harrison Jacobs in early April at Artnews: ‘Earlier this week, the Financial Times published a wide-ranging interview with Sotheby's CEO Charles F. Stewart, seemingly meant to talk up the auction house's business ahead of next month's all-important marquee auctions in New York. The biggest takeaway, however, didn't come from a quote, but was tucked halfway through the piece. The auction house's recent $1 billion investment deal with ADQ, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund and investment company, the FT reported, was for a 25 to 30 percent stake in the company.’

The conclusion of the May evening auction at Christie's in New York by Karen K. Ho and Daniel Cassady for Artnews can be roughly translated as a weak C: ‘Overall, the night provided a telling snapshot of where the high-end market stands today: steady, still stratified, and leaning hard on proven names. ‘It was a valiant effort to get some numbers that look good. I think that team worked hard,’ art advisor Dane Jensen told ARTnews. ‘It was a tough effort. Not a disaster, but you can tell the market's tight.’ Kabir Jhala breaks down the results in The Art Newspaper.

Sotheby's, on the other hand, suffered a veritable setback with a Giacometti sculpture, reports Maximilíano Durón at Artnews: ‘Auctioneer Oliver Barker started the bidding for the work, which was offered without a guarantee, at $59 million. Though a handful of bids got the price up to $64 million, the lot was pulled after four minutes without being sold. (The probable cause was that the seller had set a minimum reserve price above that, most likely the $70 million estimate upon request.)“

The old master auction at Sotheby's, accompanied by strong PR, disappoints Karen K. Ho at Artnews: "Experts said the low sell-through rate for the evening sale was due to a combination of overly high estimates, changing tastes among buyers of Old Master works, the auction's timing, and the large number of guarantees. ‘Buyers don't respond well to guarantees, whether they're in-house or third-party guarantees,’ art dealer Nicholas Hall, the former head of Christie's Old Masters department, told ARTnews. ‘I think buyers prefer to make up their own minds as to how they value a picture. A guarantee can actually be, in some ways, a deterrent to potential buyers.’ Carlie Porterfield attempts to find a silver lining in the disaster in The Art Newspaper (paywall may apply).

As in the USA and London, the auction week in Germany in June was mixed. Grisebach in Berlin will be rethinking its strategy, according to Jan Kohlhaas in the Handelsblatt: ‘High hopes had been pinned on the ’19th Century Art" auction for the appeal of a private Dresden collection featuring Romantic masterpieces, but they were dashed. Of the 22 works, almost half were returned, and all four top lots in the six-figure range failed to sell (...) Von Schacky told Handelsblatt that they would be discussing the future of the department. Signs of fatigue in the 19th century had been observed for some time, and now it was time to react. A few years ago, the house had a similar experience with its photography department and has since significantly reduced its offerings. Overall, however, the results of the summer auctions were very satisfactory. The Evening Sale in particular delivered everything one could hope for from a successful auction: a packed hall, international online and telephone bids, exciting bidding battles and spectacular price increases. Ursula Scheer emphasises the positive aspects in the FAZ.

No disaster is already considered a success. Stephanie Dieckvoss reports on the London evening auctions in the Handelsblatt: "Christie's is cancelling its evening auction for the second time. A daytime auction on 26 June will offer 97 lots, none of which are estimated to fetch more than a million. Phillips is offering 130 works on the same day with a total estimate of only ten to 15 million pounds. Only Sotheby's made an exception and organised an evening auction and several daytime auctions. With success: around 230 lots brought in £75.7 million. The evening auction sold a respectable 83 per cent of the 48 lots, with proceeds of £62.4 million." Anne Reimers writes enthusiastically in the FAZ.

Under certain circumstances, Old Masters can sell well after all, as Stephanie Dieckvoss observed for the Handelsblatt in London: "The overall good result of this evening auction, in which 34 of the 39 lots were sold for a total of £55.3 million, gives cause for optimism. This was the highest sales rate in this category since 2012. Bids came mainly from Europe and the USA, with collectors from Asia and the Middle East also bidding on a few lots. [...] Overall, both auction houses offered selected, market-fresh objects at realistic estimates this week. This shows that when there are good offers, sales are also good, with collectors apparently less and less interested in specific periods, schools of painting or even themes, but rather in the quality of individual works." This means that a strategy that auction houses have been pursuing for some time is now paying off, according to George Nelson's analysis for Artnews.

Handbags save the auction giant! George Nelson analyses Christie's half-year results for Artnews: "Christie's announced on Tuesday that its projected sales total for the first half of 2025 (H1-2025). The $2.1 billion figure, including fees, equals the sum it generated during the first half of 2024 (H1-2024). While last year's total marked a 22 percent year-on-year decline compared to the same period for 2023, Alex Rotter, Christie's global president, told journalists during a Zoom call that this year's plateau was partly down to ‘renewed interest’ in ‘pockets of 20th and 21st century art.’ Does this mean the market for modern and contemporary art is stabilising after a drawn-out decline? Not necessarily. Strong sales in its luxury categories counter the even-keeled totals in most of the art categories. Christie's sold almost 30 percent more handbags, watches, cars, and jewellery during H1-2025 than H1-2024, generating $468 million, or 22 percent of the $2.1 billion total.

Ursula Scheer's half-year review of German art auction houses has only been published online in the FAZ, but behind the F+ paywall (perhaps to encourage buyers of the printed Saturday edition to make another purchase): "However, the current half-year figures from the top-selling local auctioneers show that the new restraint is not a widespread phenomenon, but is mainly evident in certain areas – such as modern or contemporary works with top prices in excess of ten million dollars, as offered by the major international auctioneers in New York or London. In a comparatively small market such as Germany, which accounts for only two per cent of global art sales but shrank by only five per cent in 2024 – far less than the global trade as a whole – relative growth is even possible."

The Phillips auction house is introducing a new fee structure and appears to be taking a more skilful approach than its competitor Sotheby's, reports Tessa Solomon in Artnews: "Here's how it will work: A binding written bid must be placed at least 48 hours before the auction's start time and must be equal to or greater than the lot's published low estimate. According to Phillips, the winning priority bid will benefit from a ‘significantly lower’ buyer's premium rate. [...] Art advisor Dane Jensen told ARTnews on Tuesday that the new fees should have a limited impact. ‘This really is only applicable to more moderately priced lots, as usually the top lots have guarantees,’ Jensen said. The biggest advantage, he added, seems to go to the auction house, not collectors, as the structure gives specialists 48 hours to shop the bid around and solicit a higher bid.“